Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Margin of Victory

Regarding Bush's campaign strategies, one politician said this:
Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) said that however the election turns out, Bush made a choice that he did not have to make: 'He could have chosen a 55 percent strategy, yet instead he went for a strategy that at best gets him to 50.001.'
An odd thing to say. It's possible that by shifting his positions on various issues, Bush might have picked up an extra 5% of the electorate somewhere. But he was not going to do so on any major issue, or he might well have lost 5% (or more) somewhere else. Anyway, many of the people who are squarely in the middle are inherently difficult to appeal to in the first place. There's just no telling what sort of minor issue or event will tip them one way or the other.


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